"We are closer to the margin than we think", Raftery said.
The new research focused instead on three quantities that underpin the scenarios for future emissions: total world population, gross domestic product per person and the amount of carbon emitted for each dollar of economic activity, known as carbon intensity.
There is a 5% chance of limiting global warming to 2°C, the target set by the Paris agreement sealed by the worldwide community in 2015, according to researchers. There's a 90 percent chance temperatures will climb by at least 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century - and they could get nearly 5 degrees higher.
The findings are dire, but they should inspire action rather than hopelessness, said Adrian Raftery, a professor of statistics and sociology at the University of Washington and author of the study on temperature forecasts.
"It is achievable, but only with major, sustained effort on all fronts over the next 80 years", Raftery explained in a university news release.
A new study found that global temperature is likely to rise more than 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. In the worst-case scenario, temperatures are estimated to rise nearly 6 degrees Celsius beyond pre-industrial times.More news: Microsoft Just Killed This App for Apple's iPhone and iPad
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Study co-author Dargan Frierson pointed out that "countries argued for the 1.5-degree Celsius target because of the severe impacts on their livelihoods that would result from exceeding that threshold".
The 2 degree mark was set by the 2016 Paris Agreement. But at the current rate, carbon intensity is unlikely to fall fast enough to prevent significant warming.
The 2 degree Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) threshold, first conceived by Yale economist William Nordhouse in 1977, is considered the point when the planet as we know it will no longer exist as rising seas, weather anomalies, strengthened hurricanes, fewer crops and extended droughts become the norm. To make matters worse, the study has speculated a peak in death toll with a projected 60,000 globally in 2030 and 260,000 by 2100.
Both studies used different approaches and methodologies but concluded that Earth is on the brink of heating into a point of no return, which will have severe consequences for the environment and the billions of people in the world.
At the end of July, there were two studies published which had a negative view on climate change. This is in large part because most of that growth will occur in Africa, where per capita emissions will remain relatively low.
Climate modeling and observational data suggest the world is already on track to reach unsafe levels of warming by the end of the century, according to the two papers.
The research accounts for the climate-relevant behavior of fine participles in the atmosphere, the ocean's capacity to absorb carbon, data on the planet's energy imbalance, and other factors.